Journal article
Projecting corn and soybeans yields under climate change in a Corn Belt watershed
Agricultural Systems, Vol.152(C), pp.90-99
03/2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.013
Abstract
Climate change may have positive or negative effects on agricultural yields depending on location and mitigation and adaptation practices. This research investigates future corn and soybean yields in the Raccoon watershed, in the US Corn Belt, using projected climate data. We used the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to estimate the impact of climate change for 2015–2099 with data downscaled from eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) with three emissions pathways reflecting low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Soil properties were gathered from the Soil Survey Geographic Database and data on crop rotations was derived from CropScape, a geospatial cropland data layer product of the US National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Our findings indicate that 20-year mean yields of both corn and soybean for 2080–2099 simulated in EPIC using all eight AOGCMs under low and medium carbon scenarios will increase in comparison to the 20-year mean yields for 2015–2034. However, under the high carbon scenario, 20-year means of both corn and soybean yields for 2080–2099 will decline in comparison to the 20-year mean yields for 2015–2034, pointing to the effects of climate change. We also examined the possible impact of carbon fertilization on yields. Our results show that carbon fertilization of soybean, a C3 plant, may contribute to an increase in yield of 2% to 20% while its contribution to the growth of corn, a C4 plant, will be much lower. •We examined future corn and soybean yields in the Raccoon watershed of US corn belt.•We used downscaled data from eight AOGCMs for three emission pathways.•Corn and soybean yields under low and medium carbon scenarios will increase.•Corn and soybean yields under high carbon scenario will decrease.•Carbon fertilization of soybean increases yields 18–27% while of corn slightly.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Projecting corn and soybeans yields under climate change in a Corn Belt watershed
- Creators
- Mukesh Dev Bhattarai - Environmental Resources and Policy Program, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901, United StatesSilvia Secchi - Department of Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901, United StatesJustin Schoof - Department of Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL 62901, United States
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Agricultural Systems, Vol.152(C), pp.90-99
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.013
- ISSN
- 0308-521X
- eISSN
- 1873-2267
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100000001, name: National Science Foundation, award: 1009925; name: World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling; DOI: 10.13039/100000015, name: U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/2017
- Academic Unit
- University College Courses; Geographical and Sustainability Sciences; Public Policy Center (Archive)
- Record Identifier
- 9983917796102771
Metrics
44 Record Views