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Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy

Michael S Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
PS, political science & politics, Vol.46(1), pp.39-40
01/2013
DOI: 10.1017/S1049096512001485

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Abstract

Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points.
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election

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