Real-Time Forecasting and Mapping Flood Extent from Integrated Hydrologic Models and Satellite Remote Sensing

Witold Krajewski; Marcela Rojas; Felipe Quintero; Efthymios Nikolopoulos; Pietro Ceccato

doi:10.3390/w18050550

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Real-Time Forecasting and Mapping Flood Extent from Integrated Hydrologic Models and Satellite Remote Sensing

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Real-Time Forecasting and Mapping Flood Extent from Integrated Hydrologic Models and Satellite Remote Sensing

Witold Krajewski, Marcela Rojas, Felipe Quintero, Efthymios Nikolopoulos and Pietro Ceccato

Water (Basel), Vol.18(5), 550

02/26/2026

DOI: 10.3390/w18050550

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Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive real-time forecasting and mapping cycle of a regional flood event, encompassing quantitative precipitation forecasting, runoff production and routing, and inundation mapping. The objective of this study is to highlight the significant uncertainties inherent in each step of the fully automated cycle, despite the utilization of state-of-the-art models and remote sensing technologies. The case study focuses on a significant flood event that occurred in the Turkey River and Upper Iowa River, in rural Iowa, United States, resulting in localized damage and disruption to several small communities. The novelty of this study is that it demonstrates the limited utility of satellite-based remote sensing in the absence of other forecasting and mapping system elements, emphasizing the need for the timely integration of information from diverse sources to accurately forecast and map floods. To achieve this, we assembled and analyzed precipitation data from weather radars, streamflow estimates derived from river stages and rating curves, and cross-sectional data from river channels to characterize the movement of the flood wave. These data were integrated into hydrologic and hydraulic models to generate flood inundation estimates for the more severely affected areas. Remote sensing imagery was obtained and used as reference to assess the accuracy of the modeled inundated areas. Our findings illustrate that, despite the increasing availability of satellite data sources, there are still significant limitations to tracking inundation using satellite remote sensing, particularly for medium-sized basins. Flood modeling processes are not merely complementary to satellite-based flood estimation, but essential for comprehensive flood risk assessment.

flood monitoring

flood mapping

hydrologic modeling

satellite images

Turkey River

Upper Iowa river

Iowa

Details

Title: Subtitle: Real-Time Forecasting and Mapping Flood Extent from Integrated Hydrologic Models and Satellite Remote Sensing
Creators: Witold Krajewski - University of Iowa
Marcela Rojas - University of Iowa
Felipe Quintero - University of Iowa
Efthymios Nikolopoulos - Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Pietro Ceccato - European Commission
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Water (Basel), Vol.18(5), 550
DOI: 10.3390/w18050550
ISSN: 2073-4441
eISSN: 2073-4441
Publisher: MDPI
Grant note: Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering endowment at the University of IowaCooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH): NA22NWS4320003
F.Q was supported by the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) with funding under award NA22NWS4320003 from the NOAA Cooperative Institute Program. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of NOAA. W.F.K was partially supported by the Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering endowment at the University of Iowa.
Language: English
Date published: 02/26/2026
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Record Identifier: 9985141987202771

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