Journal article
Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights
Journal of hydrology: X, Vol.13, p.100110
12/01/2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100110
Abstract
•Proposition of simple benchmarks for real-time streamflow forecasting.•Use of basic hydrologic insights for the development of benchmarks.•Proposed benchmarks demonstrate good performance according to several metrics.•Benchmarks useful for developers of physics-based and data-based hydrologic models.
In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km2. The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights
- Creators
- Witold F Krajewski - University of IowaGanesh R Ghimire - Oak Ridge National LaboratoryIbrahim Demir - University of IowaRicardo Mantilla - University of Manitoba
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrology: X, Vol.13, p.100110
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.hydroa.2021.100110
- ISSN
- 2589-9155
- eISSN
- 2589-9155
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 12/01/2021
- Academic Unit
- Electrical and Computer Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering; Injury Prevention Research Center
- Record Identifier
- 9984202146702771
Metrics
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