Journal article
Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO 2
AGU advances, Vol.6(2), e2024AV001432
04/2025
DOI: 10.1029/2024AV001432
Appears in UI Libraries Support Open Access
Abstract
Missouri River streamflow increased substantially during the 20th century, with multiple large floods occurring since 1990. Using land surface models and water budget simulations, we examined the extent to which increased flow was driven by natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate trends, land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC), and ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 . Natural climate variability (arising largely from coupled ocean‐atmosphere circulation systems in both the Pacific and North Atlantic) accounted for ∼765 m 3 s −1 of the ∼900 m 3 s −1 increase in flow since mid‐century, while anthropogenic climate trends negatively forced flow by increasing evapotranspiration more than precipitation. LULCC and elevated CO 2 further increased simulated mean streamflow by ∼550 and ∼70 m 3 s −1 , respectively, relative to pre‐Industrial conditions and ∼100 and ∼65 m 3 s −1 relative to mid‐20th century conditions. The LULCC effect was especially large in wet years, implying that current land cover is ill‐suited for buffering against extreme precipitation, likely in large part due to replacement of forest by cropland in the lower basin. Because increases in Missouri River flow over the past century were driven mostly by a recent (and likely transient) pluvial, our results suggest that flow in the basin could revert to a drier mean state when that pluvial ends, likely made worse by increased evaporative demand from anthropogenic warming.
Floods are among humanity's costliest natural disasters. Anthropogenic global change, including both climate change and land‐use change, can alter hydrologic regimes, but global changes are overlain on natural climatic fluctuations and can have competing influences on streamflow, making it difficult to understand and prepare for hydrologic change. In the Missouri River basin, one of the largest river systems in the United States (U.S.), average streamflow increased by ∼40% over the past century, with multiple years of extremely high streamflow occurring since 1990. We investigated the causes of increased Missouri River streamflow, finding that it was mostly driven by “natural” climate variability and by land‐use change (replacement of deep‐rooted forests and shrublands by shallow‐rooted croplands and grasslands), whereas anthropogenic climate trends would have caused drying, all else being equal. This implies that when the current multi‐decade wet period ends, the Missouri basin could return to a drier mean state made worse by human‐caused warming.
20th and 21st century increases in Missouri River basin (MRB) streamflow were mostly driven by climate variability and land‐use change On its own, anthropogenic climate change reduced MRB streamflow as increases in evaporative demand outweighed increases in precipitation Elevated atmospheric CO 2 slightly increased MRB streamflow, implying that increased water‐use efficiency outweighed increased leaf area
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO 2
- Creators
- Matthew P. Dannenberg - University of IowaGregory J. McCabe - Hydroclimate Consulting LLC Littleton CO USAErika K. Wise - University of North Carolina at Chapel HillMiriam R. Johnston - University of IowaDeborah N. Huntzinger - Northern Arizona UniversityA. Park Williams - University of California, Los Angeles
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- AGU advances, Vol.6(2), e2024AV001432
- Publisher
- Wiley
- DOI
- 10.1029/2024AV001432
- ISSN
- 2576-604X
- eISSN
- 2576-604X
- Grant note
- National Science FoundationGordon and Betty Moore Foundation: GBMF11974, NNX10AG01A, NNH10AN681
We thank Connie Woodhouse, Sara Goeking, and two anonymous reviewers for comments and discussion that improved the manuscript. This research was funded by National Science Foundation grants AGS-2001753 (MPD), AGS-2002259 (EKW), and 2131853 (MPD) and by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant GBMF11974 (APW). We thank the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for providing daily unregulated flow estimates. Funding for the Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP; ) activity was provided through NASA ROSES Grant NNX10AG01A. Data management support for preparing, documenting, and distributing model driver and output data was performed by the Modeling and Synthesis Thematic Data Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL; ), with funding through NASA ROSES Grant NNH10AN681.
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/2025
- Academic Unit
- Geographical and Sustainability Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984801891102771
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