Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase

Kun Chen; Lorenzo Ciannelli; Mary Beth Decker; Carol Ladd; Wei Cheng; Ziqian Zhou; Kung-Sik Chan

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095316

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Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase

Kun Chen, Lorenzo Ciannelli, Mary Beth Decker, Carol Ladd, Wei Cheng, Ziqian Zhou and Kung-Sik Chan

PloS one, Vol.9(5), pp.e95316-e95316

2014

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0095316

PMCID: PMC4023943

PMID: 24835251

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Abstract

For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.

Models, Theoretical

Regression Analysis

Oceans and Seas

Animals

Time Factors

Animal Distribution - physiology

Ecosystem

Alaska

Biomass

Water Movements

Population Dynamics

Scyphozoa - physiology

Details

Title: Subtitle: Reconstructing source-sink dynamics in a population with a pelagic dispersal phase
Creators: Kun Chen - Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, United States of America
Lorenzo Ciannelli - College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
Mary Beth Decker - Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Carol Ladd - PMEL, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
Wei Cheng - PMEL, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, United States of America; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
Ziqian Zhou - Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America
Kung-Sik Chan - Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: PloS one, Vol.9(5), pp.e95316-e95316
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0095316
PMID: 24835251
PMCID: PMC4023943
NLM abbreviation: PLoS One
ISSN: 1932-6203
eISSN: 1932-6203
Publisher: United States
Language: English
Date published: 2014
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9983985941702771

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