Journal article
Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts
Marine ecology. Progress series (Halstenbek), Vol.417, pp.237-248
01/01/2010
DOI: 10.3354/meps08817
Abstract
Forecasting recruitment of marine fishes from environmental effects acting upon larvae has proven difficult due to multiple, nonlinear, interacting factors influencing larval survival. We used another approach, which circumvents the period of high egg and larval mortality, and instead improves forecasts from juvenile abundance indices. We compared several statistical recruitment forecast models and demonstrate that an increasing abundance of predators on juvenile walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma, particularly the arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias, which now dominates the groundfish biomass in the Gulf of Alaska, and autocorrelation caused by intercohort interactions strongly affect pollock recruitment during the juvenile phase. Furthermore, the weight of predictor variables changes with threshold criteria, which are linked to phase shifts in the marine environment. Our results indicate that forecasting recruitment of marine fishes can be improved by considering factors that influence survival after the juvenile period, but also needs to account for changes in community structure and phase shifts in the environment, as opposed to only environmental correlates. Inclusion of these factors is consonant with biological knowledge of the species.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Recruitment forecast models for walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma fine-tuned from juvenile survey data, predator abundance and environmental phase shifts
- Creators
- Tianyang Zhang - Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USAKevin M Bailey - NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, Seattle, WA 98115 USAKung-sik Chan - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Marine ecology. Progress series (Halstenbek), Vol.417, pp.237-248
- Publisher
- INTER-RESEARCH
- DOI
- 10.3354/meps08817
- ISSN
- 0171-8630
- eISSN
- 1616-1599
- Number of pages
- 12
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2010
- Academic Unit
- Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
- Record Identifier
- 9984257620302771
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