Journal article
Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises
The Journal of conflict resolution, Vol.44(5), pp.686-699
10/01/2000
DOI: 10.1177/0022002700044005006
Abstract
Previously reported empirical evidence suggests that when conflict arises, military alliances are not reliable; state leaders should only expect their alliance partners to join them in war about 25% of the time. Yet, theoretical arguments explaining the choices of leaders to form cooperative agreements are at odds with such empirical evidence. This puzzling gap between theory and evidence motivates a reconsideration of previous measures of alliance reliability. Many alliance treaties include specific language regarding the circumstances under which the alliance comes into effect, often limiting obligations to disputes with specific target states or in specific geographic areas, and many treaties do not go so far as to require states to join in active fighting. Considering the specific obligations included in alliance agreements provides an improved estimate of the propensity of states to honor their commitments. Results show that alliances are reliable 74.5% of the time.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises
- Creators
- Brett Ashley LeedsAndrew G LongSara McLaughlin Mitchell
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- The Journal of conflict resolution, Vol.44(5), pp.686-699
- Publisher
- University of Michigan, Department of Journalism; Ann Arbor, Mich
- DOI
- 10.1177/0022002700044005006
- ISSN
- 0022-0027
- eISSN
- 1552-8766
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/01/2000
- Academic Unit
- Political Science; Public Policy Center (Archive); Center for Social Science Innovation
- Record Identifier
- 9983983483602771
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