Revisiting Turcotte’s approach: flood frequency analysis

Witold F. Krajewski; Lindsay Otto; Srishti Vishwakarma; Gabriel Perez

doi:10.1007/s00477-022-02344-6

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Revisiting Turcotte’s approach: flood frequency analysis

Journal article

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Revisiting Turcotte’s approach: flood frequency analysis

Witold F. Krajewski, Lindsay Otto, Srishti Vishwakarma and Gabriel Perez

Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, Vol.37(5), pp.2013-2022

2023

DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02344-6

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Abstract

Flood frequency estimation forms the basis for engineering design of hydraulic structures, including bridges and culverts, local and regional development planning, and flood insurance. In the United States, the Water Resources Council recommends using the Log-Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution as a standard for use with the annual peak flow data. However, researchers have argued for the use of more than one streamflow value in a year thus increasing the sample size and decreasing the sampling error in the estimates of the flood quantiles. In this study, conducted over Iowa, the authors revisit the method proposed by Donald Turcotte and others to use power-law distribution applied to streamflow peak values for events separated by a time window. In contrast to those earlier studies, the authors applied formal statistical approach based on the maximum likelihood method and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for parameter estimation. They also propose a novel simulation framework for the estimation of the sampling uncertainty of the power-law distribution. They apply the methodology to streamflow data from 62 USGS stream gauges in Iowa. The key finding of the study is that low-probability quantile estimates using Turcotte’s method result in conservative estimates when compared with LP3 distribution confirming the earlier outcomes.

Computer Science

Physics

Aquatic Pollution

Brief Report

Chemistry and Earth Sciences

Computational Intelligence

Earth and Environmental Science

Earth Sciences

Environment

General

Math. Appl. in Environmental Science

Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes

Statistics for Engineering

Waste Water Technology

Water Management

Water Pollution Control

Details

Title: Subtitle: Revisiting Turcotte’s approach: flood frequency analysis
Creators: Witold F. Krajewski - University of Iowa
Lindsay Otto - West Consultants
Srishti Vishwakarma - Joint Global Change Research Institute
Gabriel Perez - Vanderbilt University
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, Vol.37(5), pp.2013-2022
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02344-6
ISSN: 1436-3240
eISSN: 1436-3259
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Grant note: Iowa Flood Center
Language: English
Date published: 2023
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984398210602771

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