SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

Nathan B Wikle; Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran; Bethany Gentilesco; Scott M Leighow; Emmy Albert; Emily R Strong; Karel Brinda; Haider Inam; Fuhan Yang; Sajid Hossain; Philip Chan; William P Hanage; Maria Messick; Justin R Pritchard; Ephraim M Hanks; Maciej F Boni

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf9868

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SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

Journal article

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SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

Nathan B Wikle, Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran, Bethany Gentilesco, Scott M Leighow, Emmy Albert, Emily R Strong, Karel Brinda, Haider Inam, Fuhan Yang, Sajid Hossain, …

Science advances, Vol.8(4), pp.eabf9868-eabf9868

01/28/2022

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868

PMCID: PMC8791616

PMID: 35080987

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Abstract

State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states-Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania-that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.

Adult

Aged

Aged, 80 and over

COVID-19 - epidemiology

COVID-19 - mortality

COVID-19 - virology

Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data

Humans

Incidence

Intensive Care Units

Massachusetts - epidemiology

Middle Aged

Pennsylvania - epidemiology

Population Dynamics

Quarantine

Rhode Island - epidemiology

SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification

Survival Analysis

Young Adult

Details

Title: Subtitle: SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
Creators: Nathan B Wikle - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Bethany Gentilesco - Brown University
Scott M Leighow - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Emmy Albert - Pennsylvania State University
Emily R Strong - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Karel Brinda - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Haider Inam - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Fuhan Yang - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Sajid Hossain - University of New Haven
Philip Chan - Brown University
William P Hanage - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Maria Messick - Rhode Island Department of Health
Justin R Pritchard - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Ephraim M Hanks - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Maciej F Boni - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Science advances, Vol.8(4), pp.eabf9868-eabf9868
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
PMID: 35080987
PMCID: PMC8791616
NLM abbreviation: Sci Adv
ISSN: 2375-2548
eISSN: 2375-2548
Grant note: T35 HL007649 / NHLBI NIH HHS
Language: English
Date published: 01/28/2022
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science
Record Identifier: 9984446457402771

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