Journal article
SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
Science advances, Vol.8(4), pp.eabf9868-eabf9868
01/28/2022
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
PMCID: PMC8791616
PMID: 35080987
Abstract
State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states-Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania-that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics
- Creators
- Nathan B Wikle - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyThu Nguyen-Anh Tran - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyBethany Gentilesco - Brown UniversityScott M Leighow - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyEmmy Albert - Pennsylvania State UniversityEmily R Strong - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyKarel Brinda - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyHaider Inam - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyFuhan Yang - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicySajid Hossain - University of New HavenPhilip Chan - Brown UniversityWilliam P Hanage - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyMaria Messick - Rhode Island Department of HealthJustin R Pritchard - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyEphraim M Hanks - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & PolicyMaciej F Boni - Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Science advances, Vol.8(4), pp.eabf9868-eabf9868
- DOI
- 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868
- PMID
- 35080987
- PMCID
- PMC8791616
- ISSN
- 2375-2548
- eISSN
- 2375-2548
- Grant note
- T35 HL007649 / NHLBI NIH HHS
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/28/2022
- Academic Unit
- Statistics and Actuarial Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984446457402771
Metrics
5 Record Views