Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Wen Zhang; William K. Smith; Trevor F. Keenan; Matthew P. Dannenberg; Yang Li; Songhan Wang; John S. Kimball; David J. P. Moore

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w

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Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

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Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Wen Zhang, William K. Smith, Trevor F. Keenan, Matthew P. Dannenberg, Yang Li, Songhan Wang, John S. Kimball and David J. P. Moore

Nature communications, Vol.16(1), 6287

07/08/2025

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w

PMCID: PMC12238260

PMID: 40628698

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Abstract

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink. Rising CO₂ and warming enhance vegetation greening, but drought, heat stress, and resource limits constrain this trend. Here, the authors show that within a year, increased early- and peak- season greenness often leads to late-season declines, highlighting water/heat stress limits on greening and the carbon sink.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades
Creators: Wen Zhang - University of Arizona
William K. Smith - University of Arizona
Trevor F. Keenan - University of California, Berkeley
Matthew P. Dannenberg - University of Iowa
Yang Li - University of Arizona
Songhan Wang - Nanjing Agricultural University
John S. Kimball - University of Montana
David J. P. Moore - University of Arizona
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Nature communications, Vol.16(1), 6287
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w
PMID: 40628698
PMCID: PMC12238260
NLM abbreviation: Nat Commun
ISSN: 2041-1723
eISSN: 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK
Grant note: W.Z., W.K.S. and T.F.K. acknowledge support from NASA Award 80NSSC21K1705. T.F.K. also acknowledges support from the RUBISCO SFA, which is sponsored by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division: 80NSSC21K1924, 80NSSC22K1238 NASA: DE-SC0021023, 80NSSC20K1801, 80NSSC25K7327 Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science: 2131853 U.S. National Science Foundation's EPSCoR program
W.Z., W.K.S. and T.F.K. acknowledge support from NASA Award 80NSSC21K1705. T.F.K. also acknowledges support from the RUBISCO SFA, which is sponsored by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, and additional support from a DOE Early Career Research Program award #DE-SC0021023 and NASA Award 80NSSC20K1801 and 80NSSC25K7327. M.P.D. acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation's EPSCoR program (grant 2131853) and NASA award 80NSSC20K1805. J.S.K acknowledges support from NASA (80NSSC21K1924, 80NSSC22K1238). We also acknowledge Dr. Chi Chen from Rutgers University for their valuable contribution to the AVHRR LAI3g dataset and for the helpful discussions.
Language: English
Date published: 07/08/2025
Academic Unit: Geographical and Sustainability Sciences
Record Identifier: 9984845651202771

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