Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE

Rhawn F. Denniston; Caroline C. Ummenhofer; Kerry Emanuel; Roberto Ingrosso; Francesco S. R. Pausata; Alan D. Wanamaker; Matthew S. Lachniet; Kenneth T. Carr; Yemane Asmerom; Victor J. Polyak; Jonathan Nott; Wei Zhang; Gabriele Villarini; John Cugley; Darren Brooks; David Woods; William F. Humphreys

doi:10.1126/sciadv.add9832

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Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE

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Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE

Rhawn F. Denniston, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Kerry Emanuel, Roberto Ingrosso, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Alan D. Wanamaker, Matthew S. Lachniet, Kenneth T. Carr, Yemane Asmerom, Victor J. Polyak, …

Science advances, Vol.9(2), p.eadd9832

01/13/2023

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9832

PMCID: PMC9833654

PMID: 36630513

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia’s moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming. Stalagmites and climate models reveal ITCZ shifts drove concurrent changes in Australian tropical cyclone and monsoon rainfall.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE
Creators: Rhawn F. Denniston - Cornell College
Caroline C. Ummenhofer - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Kerry Emanuel - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Roberto Ingrosso - Université du Québec
Francesco S. R. Pausata - Université du Québec
Alan D. Wanamaker - Iowa State University
Matthew S. Lachniet - University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Kenneth T. Carr - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Yemane Asmerom - University of New Mexico
Victor J. Polyak - University of New Mexico
Jonathan Nott - James Cook University
Wei Zhang - University of Iowa
Gabriele Villarini - University of Iowa
John Cugley - Australian Speleological Federation, Perth, WA, Australia.
Darren Brooks - Australian Speleological Federation, Perth, WA, Australia.
David Woods - Parks and Wildlife Service
William F. Humphreys - The University of Western Australia
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Science advances, Vol.9(2), p.eadd9832
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9832
PMID: 36630513
PMCID: PMC9833654
NLM abbreviation: Sci Adv
ISSN: 2375-2548
eISSN: 2375-2548
Language: English
Date published: 01/13/2023
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering; Earth and Environmental Sciences; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984358166002771

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