Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations

Wei Lyu; George L Wehby

doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00719

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Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations

Wei Lyu and George L Wehby

Health affairs Web exclusive, Vol.39(9), pp.1615-1623

09/2020

DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00719

PMID: 32644825

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Abstract

Most states enacted shelter-in-place orders when mitigating the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Emerging evidence indicates that these orders have reduced COVID-19 cases. Using data starting at different dates in March and going through May 15, 2020, we examined the effects of shelter-in-place orders on daily growth rates of both COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, using event study models. We found that shelter-in-place orders reduced both the daily mortality growth rate nearly three weeks after their enactment and the daily growth rate of hospitalizations two weeks after their enactment. After forty-two days from enactment, the daily mortality growth rate declined by up to 6.1 percentage points. Projections suggest that as many as 250,000-370,000 deaths were possibly averted by May 15 in the forty-two states plus Washington, D.C., that had statewide shelter-in-place orders. The daily hospitalization growth rate examined in nineteen states with shelter-in-place orders and three states without them that had data on hospitalizations declined by up to 8.4 percentage points after forty-two days. This evidence suggests that shelter-in-place orders have been effective in reducing the daily growth rates of COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations.

Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology

Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control

COVID-19

Female

Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data

Humans

Male

Mortality - trends

Pandemics - prevention & control

Pandemics - statistics & numerical data

Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology

Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control

Policy Making

Primary Prevention - legislation & jurisprudence

Quality Improvement

Quarantine - legislation & jurisprudence

United States

Details

Title: Subtitle: Shelter-In-Place Orders Reduced COVID-19 Mortality And Reduced The Rate Of Growth In Hospitalizations
Creators: Wei Lyu - Wei Lyu is a research associate in the Department of Health Management and Policy, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, in Iowa City, Iowa
George L Wehby - George L. Wehby (george-wehby@uiowa.edu) is a professor in the Department of Health Management and Policy, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Health affairs Web exclusive, Vol.39(9), pp.1615-1623
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00719
PMID: 32644825
NLM abbreviation: Health Aff (Millwood)
ISSN: 0278-2715
eISSN: 1544-5208
Language: English
Date published: 09/2020
Academic Unit: Preventive and Community Dentistry; Health Management and Policy; Economics; Public Policy Center (Archive)
Record Identifier: 9984214693602771

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