Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Jordan S Read; Luke A Winslow; Gretchen J.A Hansen; Jamon Van Den Hoek; Paul C Hanson; Louise C Bruce; Corey D Markfort

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029

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Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Journal article

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Peer reviewed

Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Jordan S Read, Luke A Winslow, Gretchen J.A Hansen, Jamon Van Den Hoek, Paul C Hanson, Louise C Bruce and Corey D Markfort

Ecological modelling, Vol.291, pp.142-150

11/10/2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029

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Abstract

•We mechanistically modeled the responses of 2368 lakes to regional climate.•The modeling framework developed uses standards for web processing and data transfer.•Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for stratification.•Lake stratification responses to climate change were complex and diverse.•Important thermal habitat variability was revealed by modeling diverse lakes. Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake–climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979–2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some – but not all – ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Limnology

Climate change

Lake temperature modeling

Stratification

Water temperature

Coherence

Details

Title: Subtitle: Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology
Creators: Jordan S Read - Center for Integrated Data Analytics, U.S. Geological Survey, Middleton, WI, USA
Luke A Winslow - Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Gretchen J.A Hansen - Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Jamon Van Den Hoek - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Code 618.0, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Paul C Hanson - Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Louise C Bruce - School of Earth & Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
Corey D Markfort - IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Ecological modelling, Vol.291, pp.142-150
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029
ISSN: 0304-3800
eISSN: 1872-7026
Publisher: Elsevier B.V
Grant note: DOI: 10.13039/100000203, name: U.S. Geological Survey; DOI: 10.13039/501100000930, name: NSF; DOI: 10.13039/100004946, name: Department of Natural Resources; DOI: 10.13039/100000203, name: U.S. Geological Survey; DOI: 10.13039/501100000930, name: NSF
Language: English
Date published: 11/10/2014
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering; Mechanical Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983992039202771

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