Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example

Siyun Park; Kung-Sik Chan; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Larissa Nekrassova; Bakhtiyar Suleimenov; Vladimir S Ageyev; Nikolay L Klassovskiy; Sergey B Pole; Nils Chr Stenseth

doi:10.1098/rsif.2006.0160

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Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example

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Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example

Siyun Park, Kung-Sik Chan, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Larissa Nekrassova, Bakhtiyar Suleimenov, Vladimir S Ageyev, Nikolay L Klassovskiy, Sergey B Pole and Nils Chr Stenseth

Journal of the Royal Society interface, Vol.4(12), pp.57-64

02/22/2007

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0160

PMCID: PMC2219429

PMID: 17254979

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Abstract

We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.

Serology

continuous-time Markov chain

generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model

specific immunity

Yersinia pestis

Details

Title: Subtitle: Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example
Creators: Siyun Park - Seoul National University
Kung-Sik Chan - University of Iowa
Hildegunn Viljugrein - University of Oslo
Larissa Nekrassova - M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
Bakhtiyar Suleimenov - M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
Vladimir S Ageyev - M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
Nikolay L Klassovskiy - M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
Sergey B Pole - M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan
Nils Chr Stenseth - University of Oslo
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of the Royal Society interface, Vol.4(12), pp.57-64
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0160
PMID: 17254979
PMCID: PMC2219429
NLM abbreviation: J R Soc Interface
ISSN: 1742-5689
eISSN: 1742-5662
Publisher: The Royal Society
Language: English
Date published: 02/22/2007
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9984257742502771

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