Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

Kendra M. Dresback; Christine M. Szpilka; Xianwu Xue; Humberto Vergara; Naiyu Wang; Randall L. Kolar; Jia Xu; Kevin M. Geoghegan

doi:10.3390/jmse7070225

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Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development

Kendra M. Dresback, Christine M. Szpilka, Xianwu Xue, Humberto Vergara, Naiyu Wang, Randall L. Kolar, Jia Xu and Kevin M. Geoghegan

Journal of marine science and engineering, Vol.7(7), p.225

07/01/2019

DOI: 10.3390/jmse7070225

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https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7070225View

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Abstract

With a growing population (over 40%) living in coastal counties within the U.S., there is an increasing risk that coastal communities will be significantly impacted by riverine/coastal flooding and high winds associated with tropical cyclones. Climate change could exacerbate these risks; thus, it would be prudent for coastal communities to plan for resilience in the face of these uncertainties. In order to address all of these risks, a coupled physics-based modeling system has been developed that simulates total water levels. This system uses parametric models for both rainfall and wind, which only require essential information (e.g., track and central pressure) generated by a hurricane model. The system is validated with Hurricane Isabel hindcasts: One using the parametric system and another using data assimilated fields. The results show a good agreement to the available data, indicating that the system is able to adequately capture the hazards using parametric models, as compared to optimized fields. The validated system was then utilized to simulate randomly generated scenarios that account for future uncertainty, i.e., amount of sea level rise and storm strength/track, as influenced by projected climate change scenarios. Results are then used in next step in the development of a system-wide, community resilience model.

Engineering

Engineering, Marine

Engineering, Ocean

Oceanography

Physical Sciences

Science & Technology

Technology

Details

Title: Subtitle: Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development
Creators: Kendra M. Dresback - University of Oklahoma
Christine M. Szpilka - University of Oklahoma
Xianwu Xue - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Humberto Vergara - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Naiyu Wang - Zhejiang University
Randall L. Kolar - University of Oklahoma
Jia Xu - Dalian University of Technology
Kevin M. Geoghegan - Northwest Hydraul Consultants, Seattle, WA 98168 USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of marine science and engineering, Vol.7(7), p.225
DOI: 10.3390/jmse7070225
ISSN: 2077-1312
eISSN: 2077-1312
Publisher: Mdpi
Number of pages: 23
Grant note: 70NANB15H044 / Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning - National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
Language: English
Date published: 07/01/2019
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984446525502771

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