Journal article
THE FLASH PROJECT Improving the Tools for Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction across the United States
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.98(2), pp.361-372
02/01/2017
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1
Abstract
This study introduces the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH is the first system to generate a suite of hydrometeorological products at flash flood scale in real-time across the conterminous United States, including rainfall average recurrence intervals, ratios of rainfall to flash flood guidance, and distributed hydrologic model–based discharge forecasts. The key aspects of the system are 1) precipitation forcing from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)’s Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, 2) a computationally efficient distributed hydrologic modeling framework with sufficient representation of physical processes for flood prediction, 3) capability to provide forecasts at all grid points covered by radars without the requirement of model calibration, and 4) an open-access development platform, product display, and verification system for testing new ideas in a real-time demonstration environment and for fostering collaborations.
This study assesses the FLASH system’s ability to accurately simulate unit peak discharges over a 7-yr period in 1,643 unregulated gauged basins. The evaluation indicates that FLASH’s unit peak discharges had a linear and rank correlation of 0.64 and 0.79, respectively, and that the timing of the peak discharges has errors less than 2 h. The critical success index with FLASH was 0.38 for flood events that exceeded action stage. FLASH performance is demonstrated and evaluated for case studies, including the 2013 deadly flash flood case in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and the 2015 event in Houston, Texas—both of which occurred on Memorial Day weekends.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- THE FLASH PROJECT Improving the Tools for Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction across the United States
- Creators
- Jonathan J. Gourley - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryZachary L. Flamig - University of OklahomaHumberto Vergara - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesPierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryRobert A. Clark - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesElizabeth Argyle - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesAmi Arthur - University of OklahomaSteven Martinaitis - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesGalateia Terti - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesJessica M. Erlingis - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesYang Hong - University of OklahomaKenneth W. Howard - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.98(2), pp.361-372
- Publisher
- Amer Meteorological Soc
- DOI
- 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1
- ISSN
- 0003-0007
- eISSN
- 1520-0477
- Number of pages
- 12
- Grant note
- 113-2; NA14OAR4830100 / Disaster Relief Appropriations Act
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 02/01/2017
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984446521902771
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