Journal article
The Coupling of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast and FLASH Systems for Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction
Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.21(1), pp.123-141
01/01/2020
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0131.1
Abstract
The goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program is to provide frequently updating, probabilistic model guidance that will enable National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to produce more continuous communication of hazardous weather threats (e.g., heavy rainfall, flash floods, damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes) between the watch and warning temporal and spatial scales. To evaluate the application of this WoF concept for probabilistic short-term flash flood prediction, the 0-3-h rainfall forecasts from NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory's (NSSL) experimental WoF System (WoFS) were integrated as the forcing to the NWS operational hydrologic modeling core within the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) system. Initial assessment of the potential impacts of probabilistic short-term flash flood forecasts from this coupled atmosphere-hydrology (WoFS-FLASH) modeling system were evaluated in the 2018 Hydrometeorology Testbed Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydrology experiment held in Norman, Oklahoma. During the 3-week experiment period, a total of nine NWS forecasters analyzed three retrospective flash flood events in archive mode. This study will describe specifically what information participants extracted from the WoFS-FLASH products during these three archived events, and how this type of information is expected to impact operational decision-making processes. Overall feedback from the testbed participants' evaluations show promise for the coupled NSSL WoFS-FLASH system probabilistic flash flood model guidance to enable earlier assessment and detection of flash flood threats and to advance the current warning lead time for these events.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Coupling of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast and FLASH Systems for Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction
- Creators
- Nusrat Yussouf - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesKatie A. Wilson - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesSteven M. Martinaitis - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesHumberto Vergara - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesPam L. Heinselman - University of OklahomaJonathan J. Gourley - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.21(1), pp.123-141
- Publisher
- Amer Meteorological Soc
- DOI
- 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0131.1
- ISSN
- 1525-755X
- eISSN
- 1525-7541
- Number of pages
- 19
- Grant note
- NA11OAR4320072 / NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma, U.S. Department of Commerce; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA NA17OAR4590281 / Hydrometeorology Testbed by the Office of Weather and Air Quality under NOAA Award
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2020
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984446276202771
Metrics
2 Record Views