Journal article
The Dud-Alternative Effect in Likelihood Judgment
Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition, Vol.30(1), pp.198-215
01/2004
DOI: 10.1037/0278-7393.30.1.198
PMID: 14736307
Abstract
The judged likelihood of a focal outcome should generally decrease as the list of alternative possibilities increases. For example, the likelihood that a runner will win a race goes down when 2 new entries are added to the field. However, 6 experiments demonstrate that the presence of implausible alternatives (
duds
) often increases the judged likelihood of a focal outcome. This
dud-alternative effect
was detected for judgments involving uncertainty about trivia facts and stochastic events. Nonnumeric likelihood measures and betting measures reliably detected the effect, but numeric likelihood measures did not. Time pressure increased the magnitude of the effect. The results were consistent with a contrast-effect account: The inclusion of duds increases the perceived strength of the evidence for the focal outcome, thereby affecting its judged likelihood.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Dud-Alternative Effect in Likelihood Judgment
- Creators
- Paul D Windschitl - Department of Psychology, University of IowaJohn R Chambers - Department of Psychology, University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition, Vol.30(1), pp.198-215
- Publisher
- American Psychological Association
- DOI
- 10.1037/0278-7393.30.1.198
- PMID
- 14736307
- ISSN
- 0278-7393
- eISSN
- 1939-1285
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/2004
- Academic Unit
- Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984213395602771
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