Journal article
The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Geophysical research letters, Vol.47(15), e2020GL088851
08/16/2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088851
Abstract
Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause significant societal and economic impacts, as 2019's Dorian serves to remind us of these storms' destructiveness. Decades of effort to understand and predict Atlantic TC activity have improved seasonal forecast skill, but large uncertainties still remain, in part due to an incomplete understanding of the drivers of TC variability. Here we identify an association between the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) during July–October and the frequency of Atlantic TCs (wind speed ≥34 knot) and hurricanes (wind speed ≥64 knot) during August–November based on observations for 1980–2018. This strong association is tied to the impacts of EASJ on a stationary Rossby wave train emanating from East Asia and the tropical Pacific to the North Atlantic, leading to changes in vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Main Development Region (80–20°W, 10–20°N).
Plain Language Summary
Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for significant societal and economic impacts in terms of fatalities and property damage, as 2017's Harvey, Irma, and Maria, 2018's Florence and Matthew, and 2019's Dorian serve to highlight. There are still large uncertainties in current seasonal predictions for Atlantic TCs, which partly arise from our incomplete understanding of the drivers of the variability and nature of such storms. Here we find an association between the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) during July–October and the frequency of Atlantic TCs during August–November based on observations for 1980–2018, arising from the impacts of EASJ on the propagation of Rossby wave trains from East Asia to the North Atlantic, leading to changes in vertical wind shear over the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR).
Key Points
We identify an association between the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and the frequency of Atlantic TCs and hurricanes
This association is tied to the impacts of EASJ on a stationary Rossby wave train emanating from East Asia and the tropical Pacific
The stationary Rossby wave train leads to changes in vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Main Development Region
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
- Creators
- Wei Zhang - The University of IowaGabriele Villarini - The University of IowaGabriel A Vecchi - Princeton University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Geophysical research letters, Vol.47(15), e2020GL088851
- DOI
- 10.1029/2020GL088851
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- eISSN
- 1944-8007
- Number of pages
- 9
- Grant note
- National Science Foundation (NSF) (EAR‐1840742) DOD | United States Army | U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) NOAA/MAPP (NA18OAR4310273) The Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES) at Princeton University (NAOAR4320123) Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) at Princeton University Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) as well as the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 08/16/2020
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984066338602771
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