Journal article
The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success
Information systems frontiers, Vol.5(1), pp.95-105
01/01/2003
DOI: 10.1023/A:1022054108164
Abstract
In this paper, we extend field experiments of real money prediction markets to the problem of forecasting the success of a new product. We collect forecasts using a traditional survey mechanism and a market mechanism. Our results suggest that market prices summarize the information contained in survey forecasts and improve those forecasts by reducing the variability of the forecast. However, we find no evidence of a "crystal ball" equilibrium. Our markets have considerable variability and predict only as well as the public signal provided by the HSX movie market game. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success
- Creators
- Thomas Gruca - University of IowaJoyce Berg - University of IowaMichael Cipriano - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Information systems frontiers, Vol.5(1), pp.95-105
- Publisher
- Springer Nature B.V
- DOI
- 10.1023/A:1022054108164
- ISSN
- 1387-3326
- eISSN
- 1572-9419
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2003
- Academic Unit
- Marketing; Accounting
- Record Identifier
- 9984380418902771
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