Journal article
The Effect of Storm Direction on Flood Frequency Analysis
Geophysical research letters, Vol.48(9), p.n/a
05/16/2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091918
Abstract
Storm direction modulates a hydrograph's magnitude and duration, thus having a potentially large effect on local flood risk. However, how changes in the preferential storm direction affect the probability distribution of peak flows remains unknown. We address this question with a novel Monte Carlo approach where stochastically transposed storms drive hydrologic simulations over medium and mesoscale watersheds in the Midwestern United States. Systematic rotations of these watersheds are used to emulate changes in the preferential storm direction. We found that the peak flow distribution impacts are scale-dependent, with larger changes observed in the mesoscale watershed than in the medium-scale watershed. We attribute this to the high diversity of storm patterns and the storms' scale relative to watershed size. This study highlights the potential of the proposed stochastic framework to address fundamental questions about hydrologic extremes when our ability to observe these events in nature is hindered by technical constraints and short time records.
Plain Language Summary Estimating the likelihood of extreme events such as floods is becoming more challenging because climate change affects storm patterns worldwide. This study focuses on understanding how storm direction affects the probability distribution of peak flows, which is essential for floodplain mapping and engineering design of resilient infrastructure under future climate. Our results suggest that storm direction has minor implications for these probability distributions in medium-sized watersheds or smaller (order of 4,000 km(2)) but can significantly affect larger watersheds, particularly for the largest flood events. Our findings point to avenues for future interdisciplinary analyses of the complex, dynamic role of rainfall structure in flooding.
Key Points
The importance of storm direction in peak flow distribution is mainly driven by the relative difference of storm and watershed size
Expected changes in predominant storm trajectories can significantly modify peak flow distributions
Regionalization of peak flow distributions should account for the effects of the relative orientation of storms and watersheds
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Effect of Storm Direction on Flood Frequency Analysis
- Creators
- G. Perez - Vanderbilt UniversityJ. D. Gomez-Velez - Vanderbilt UniversityR. Mantilla - University of IowaD. B. Wright - University of Wisconsin–MadisonZ. Li - University of Wisconsin–Madison
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Geophysical research letters, Vol.48(9), p.n/a
- DOI
- 10.1029/2020GL091918
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- eISSN
- 1944-8007
- Publisher
- Amer Geophysical Union
- Number of pages
- 10
- Grant note
- 1830172; 2020814 / National Science Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF) EAR-1749638 / U.S. National Science Foundation Hydrologic Sciences Program CAREER project U. S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Bio-geochemical Research Program Scientific Focus Area at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE) 2020814 / Directorate For Engineering; Div Of Chem, Bioeng, Env, & Transp Sys; National Science Foundation (NSF); NSF - Directorate for Engineering (ENG) 1830172 / Division Of Earth Sciences; Directorate For Geosciences; National Science Foundation (NSF); NSF - Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) Iowa Flood Center
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 05/16/2021
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984962627202771
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