Journal article
The Future in Forecasting: Prospective Presidential Models
American politics research, Vol.24(4), pp.468-491
10/1996
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X9602400405
Abstract
Presidential election forecasting models may miss the mark, sometimes grossly, as the 1992 contest demonstrated. The reason for this, we argue, is specification error. The models include irrelevant variables and exclude relevant ones. In particular, prospective voting variables have been ignored. When prospective economic and political evaluations are added, alongside traditional retrospective evaluations, forecasting quality improves sharply. These full-time forecasting models that tap voter onentations toward the future, as well as toward the past, promise long-run accuracy gains.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Future in Forecasting: Prospective Presidential Models
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - University of IowaCharles Tien - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- American politics research, Vol.24(4), pp.468-491
- Publisher
- Sage Publications; Thousand Oaks, CA
- DOI
- 10.1177/1532673X9602400405
- ISSN
- 1532-673X
- eISSN
- 1552-3373
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/1996
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025657202771
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