Journal article
The Interpretation of "Likely" Depends on the Context, but "70%" Is 70%-Right? The Influence of Associative Processes on Perceived Certainty
Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition, Vol.25(6), pp.1514-1533
11/1999
DOI: 10.1037/0278-7393.25.6.1514
PMID: 10605832
Abstract
Past research has demonstrated that interpretations of
vague verbal forecasts (e.g., "likely") differ as a function of
the context to which they refer. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrate
that precise numeric forecasts (e.g., "70%") are also
susceptible to such context effects. Participants read descriptions
of target events and experts' numeric forecasts. Perceptions of
certainty, expressed on nonnumeric scales, differed as a function of
context manipulations. The results of Experiments 3a, 3b, and 4
indicate that these effects can be mediated by perceptions of an
event's representativeness independently of subjective base rates.
The results are also consistent with the idea that two types of
semi-independent processing-associative and rule
based-can have important influences on perceptions of
certainty. Implications of this distinction for research on
judgments and decisions under uncertainty are discussed.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Interpretation of "Likely" Depends on the Context, but "70%" Is 70%-Right? The Influence of Associative Processes on Perceived Certainty
- Creators
- Paul D Windschitl - Department of Psychology, University of IowaElke U Weber - Department of Psychology, Columbia University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition, Vol.25(6), pp.1514-1533
- Publisher
- American Psychological Association
- DOI
- 10.1037/0278-7393.25.6.1514
- PMID
- 10605832
- ISSN
- 0278-7393
- eISSN
- 1939-1285
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 11/1999
- Academic Unit
- Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984213389902771
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