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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates Tropical Cyclone Days on the Interannual Timescale in the North Pacific Ocean
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates Tropical Cyclone Days on the Interannual Timescale in the North Pacific Ocean

Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriele Villarini, Silvio Gualdi and Antonio Navarra
Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres, Vol.126(15), e2021JD034988
08/16/2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021JD034988
url
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034988View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

The North Pacific Ocean is the most active region on our planet in terms of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. These storms are responsible for numerous fatalities and economic damages, affecting the livelihood of those living in the impacted areas. Historically the examination of TCs in the North Pacific Ocean has been performed separately for its two main sub‐basins: the West North Pacific and the East North Pacific. Here, we consider the TC activity in the North Pacific as a single basin and examine the climate processes responsible for its number of TC days. We show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the number of TC days in the North Pacific Ocean through its connection to the sea surface temperature. The insights from this work will advance the understanding of the climate processes responsible for these storms, and will provide valuable information toward our preparation and adaptation efforts on long timescales. Plain Language Summary This work investigates the effects of different sea surface temperature patterns on the spatial distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the North Pacific leading to conditions that are more favorable to long‐lasting TCs under the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a dominant year‐round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Key Points The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the number of tropical cyclone (TC) days in the North Pacific Ocean An increase of 60% of the number of TC days south of 30°N is found, during the positive PDO phase, compared to the negative PDO phase Improving decadal forecasts to predict the temporal evolution of the PDO can be of interest to predict the future number of TC days
 North Pacific Ocean Pacific Decadal Oscillation tropical cyclones

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