The Pacific Meridional Mode and the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

W Zhang; G. A Vecchi; H Murakami; G Villarini; L Jia

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1

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The Pacific Meridional Mode and the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

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The Pacific Meridional Mode and the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

W Zhang, G. A Vecchi, H Murakami, G Villarini and L Jia

Journal of climate, Vol.29(1), pp.381-398

01/01/2016

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1

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Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the association between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP). It is found that the positive PMM phase favors the occurrence of TCs in the WNP while the negative PMM phase inhibits the occurrence of TCs there. Observed relationships are consistent with those from a long-term preindustrial control experiment (1000 yr) of a high-resolution TC-resolving Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) coupled climate model. The diagnostic relationship between the PMM and TCs in observations and the model is further supported by sensitivity experiments with FLOR. The modulation of TC genesis by the PMM is primarily through the anomalous zonal vertical wind shear (ZVWS) changes in the WNP, especially in the southeastern WNP. The anomalous ZVWS can be attributed to the responses of the atmosphere to the anomalous warming in the northwestern part of the PMM pattern during the positive PMM phase, which resembles a classic Matsuno–Gill pattern. Such influences on TC genesis are strengthened by a cyclonic flow over the WNP. The significant relationship between TCs and the PMM identified here may provide a useful reference for seasonal forecasting of TCs and interpreting changes in TC activity in the WNP.

Details

Title: Subtitle: The Pacific Meridional Mode and the Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Creators: W Zhang - Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, and Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing International Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, and NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Atmospheric Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
G. A Vecchi - NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
H Murakami - NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
G Villarini - IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa
L Jia - NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of climate, Vol.29(1), pp.381-398
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
eISSN: 1520-0442
Language: English
Date published: 01/01/2016
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983991963102771

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