Journal article
The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast
PS, political science & politics, Vol.43(4), pp.637-638
10/07/2010
DOI: 10.1017/S1049096510001071
Abstract
Congressional election forecasting has experienced steady growth. Currently fashionable models stress prediction over explanation. The independent variables do not offer a substantive account of the election outcome. Instead, these variables are tracking variables—that is, indicators that may trace the result but fail to explain it. The outstanding example is the generic ballot measure, which asks respondents for whom they plan to vote in the upcoming congressional race. While this variable correlates highly with presidential party House seat share, it is bereft of substance. The generic ballot measure is the archetypical tracking variable, and it holds pride of place in the Abramowitz (2010) model. Other examples of such tracking variables are exposed seats or lagged seats, features of the Campbell (2010) model. The difficulty with such tracking models is twofold. First, they are not based on a theory of the congressional vote. Second, because they are predictive models, they offer a suboptimal forecasting instrument when compared to models specified according to strong theory.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - University of IowaCharles Tien - Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- PS, political science & politics, Vol.43(4), pp.637-638
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press; New York, USA
- DOI
- 10.1017/S1049096510001071
- ISSN
- 1049-0965
- eISSN
- 1537-5935
- Number of pages
- 2
- Alternative title
- Symposium: Forecasts of the 2010 Midterm Election; Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/07/2010
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025548602771
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