Journal article
The binary addivity of subjective probability does not indicate the binary complentarity of perceived certainty
Organizational behavior and human decision processes, Vol.81(2), pp.195-225
03/01/2000
DOI: 10.1006/obhd.1999.2876
Abstract
People's numeric probability estimates for 2 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events commonly sum to 1.0, which seems to indicate the full complementarity of subjective certainty in the 2 events (i.e., increases in certainty for one event are accompanied by decreases in certainty for the other). A distinction is made between the additivity of probability estimates and the complementarity of internal perceptions of certainty. In Experiment 1, responses on a verbal measure of certainty provide evidence of binary noncomplementarity in the perceived likelihoods of possible scenario outcomes, and a comparison of verbal and numeric certainty estimates suggests that numeric probabilities overestimated the complementarity of people's certainty. Experiment 2 used a choice task to detect binary noncomplementarity. Soliciting numeric probability estimates prior to the choice task changed the participants' choices in a direction consistent with complementarity. Possible mechanisms yielding (non)complementarity are discussed.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The binary addivity of subjective probability does not indicate the binary complentarity of perceived certainty
- Creators
- Paul D Windschitl
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Organizational behavior and human decision processes, Vol.81(2), pp.195-225
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc
- DOI
- 10.1006/obhd.1999.2876
- ISSN
- 0749-5978
- eISSN
- 1095-9920
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/01/2000
- Academic Unit
- Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984213390202771
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