Journal article
The cognitive mechanisms behind wishful predictions: A diffusion model decomposition
Cognition, Vol.269, 106386
04/2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2025.106386
PMID: 41344303
Abstract
Wishful thinking or desirability bias refers to instances where the desire for an outcome inflates the expectation that it will occur. Although studies have demonstrated influences of outcome desirability on people's predictions, the cognitive mechanisms behind such an effect have remained unclear. Both biased criteria for evidence judgment and biased evidence search/accumulation have been suggested as possible mechanisms. In the present work, we used drift-diffusion modeling to examine on which levels of processing desirability has its impact. Participants (N = 147) made predictions about the color of a randomly selected square from 2-color grids. Crucially, certain color outcomes were made more desirable than others, and the strength of evidence was manipulated by varying the proportion of desired-color squares in the grid. We found that both manipulations-and their interaction-significantly affected predictions. More importantly, drift-diffusion model analyses showed that outcome desirability resulted in a judgment-level bias, where participants required less evidence to predict a desired outcome. Notably, we also found that desirability impacted the evidence accumulation process itself. Participants more readily construed evidence as supporting the desired outcome, indicating that desirability had a top-down influence on how prediction-relevant evidence was accumulated. The present results have implications for existing accounts of how desire impacts expectations and highlight the utility of drift diffusion modeling as a tool for assessing the mechanisms underlying motivated biases.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- The cognitive mechanisms behind wishful predictions: A diffusion model decomposition
- Creators
- Jeremy D Strueder - University of IowaInkyung Park - Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA. Electronic address: inkyung-park@uiowa.eduJ Toby Mordkoff - Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA. Electronic address: jonathan-mordkoff@uiowa.eduTimothy J Pleskac - Indiana University BloomingtonPaul D Windschitl - Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA. Electronic address: paul-windschitl@uiowa.edu
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Cognition, Vol.269, 106386
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.cognition.2025.106386
- PMID
- 41344303
- NLM abbreviation
- Cognition
- ISSN
- 0010-0277
- eISSN
- 1873-7838
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Grant note
- National Science Foundation: SES-1851738, SES-212112
This work was supported by Grant SES-1851738 (PW) and SES-212112 (TJP) from the National Science Foundation. All work was completed at the Psychological and Brain Sciences Department, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA.
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 12/03/2025
- Date published
- 04/2026
- Academic Unit
- Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9985090625402771
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