The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Paul D Windschitl; Andrew R Smith; Jason P Rose; Zlatan Krizan

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.08.003

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The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Journal article

Peer reviewed

The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism

Paul D Windschitl, Andrew R Smith, Jason P Rose and Zlatan Krizan

Organizational behavior and human decision processes, Vol.111(1), pp.33-47

2010

DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.08.003

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Abstract

Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable or undesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.

Desirability bias

Likelihood judgment

Motivated reasoning

Optimism

Subjective probability

Wishful thinking

Details

Title: Subtitle: The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism
Creators: Paul D Windschitl - Department of Psychology, E11 SSH, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, United States
Andrew R Smith - Department of Psychology, E11 SSH, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, United States
Jason P Rose - Department of Psychology, University Hall 6516, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, 43606, United States
Zlatan Krizan - Department of Psychology, W112 Lagomarcino Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, United States
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Organizational behavior and human decision processes, Vol.111(1), pp.33-47
Publisher: Elsevier Inc
DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.08.003
ISSN: 0749-5978
eISSN: 1095-9920
Language: English
Date published: 2010
Academic Unit: Psychological and Brain Sciences
Record Identifier: 9984214743802771

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