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The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa

Leif Christian Stige, Jørn Stave, Kung-Sik Chan, Lorenzo Ciannelli, Nathalie Pettorelli, Michael Glantz, Hans R Herren and Nils Chr Stenseth
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.103(9), pp.3049-3053
From the Cover
02/21/2006
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0600057103
PMCID: PMC1413945
PMID: 16492727
url
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0600057103View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961–2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982–2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for ≈20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.
 Biological Sciences El Niño Southern Oscillation food production nonlinear statistical modelling Normalized Difference Vegetation Index North Atlantic Oscillation Physical Sciences

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