Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

Leif Christian Stige; Kung-Sik Chan; Zhibin Zhang; David Frank; Nils C Stenseth

doi:10.1073/pnas.0706813104

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Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

Journal article

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Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

Leif Christian Stige, Kung-Sik Chan, Zhibin Zhang, David Frank and Nils C Stenseth

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.104(41), pp.16188-16193

From the Cover

09/18/2007

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0706813104

PMCID: PMC2042183

PMID: 17878300

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Abstract

For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis , with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.

agricultural pest

Biological Sciences

ecological response

frequency dependence

global warming

Locusta migratoria manilensis

Details

Title: Subtitle: Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics
Creators: Leif Christian Stige - University of Oslo
Kung-Sik Chan - University of Iowa
Zhibin Zhang - State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tatun Road, Chao Yang District, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China; and
David Frank - Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Nils C Stenseth - University of Oslo
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.104(41), pp.16188-16193
Series: From the Cover
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0706813104
PMID: 17878300
PMCID: PMC2042183
NLM abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
ISSN: 0027-8424
eISSN: 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Language: English
Date published: 09/18/2007
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9984257615902771

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