Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator

Howard H Chang; Montserrat Fuentes; H. Christopher Frey

doi:10.1038/jes.2012.53

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Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator

Howard H Chang, Montserrat Fuentes and H. Christopher Frey

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, Vol.22(5), pp.483-488

09/01/2012

DOI: 10.1038/jes.2012.53

PMCID: PMC3657344

PMID: 22669499

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Abstract

This paper describes a modeling framework for estimating the acute effects of personal exposure to ambient air pollution in a time series design. First, a spatial hierarchical model is used to relate Census tract-level daily ambient concentrations and simulated exposures for a subset of the study period. The complete exposure time series is then imputed for risk estimation. Modeling exposure via a statistical model reduces the computational burden associated with simulating personal exposures considerably. This allows us to consider personal exposures at a finer spatial resolution to improve exposure assessment and for a longer study period. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of fine particulate matter of <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality in the New York City metropolitan area during the period 2001-2005. Personal PM(2.5) exposures were simulated from the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation. Accounting for exposure uncertainty, the authors estimated a 2.32% (95% posterior interval: 0.68, 3.94) increase in mortality per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in personal exposure to PM(2.5) from outdoor sources on the previous day. The corresponding estimates per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) ambient concentration was 1.13% (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 2.00). The risks of mortality associated with PM(2.5) were also higher during the summer months.

Air Pollution

United States

Demographic aspects

Mortality

Time-series analysis

Health risk assessment

Health aspects

Methods

Markov chains

particulate matter

New York City

Details

Title: Subtitle: Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator
Creators: Howard H Chang
Montserrat Fuentes - North Carolina State University
H. Christopher Frey
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, Vol.22(5), pp.483-488
DOI: 10.1038/jes.2012.53
PMID: 22669499
PMCID: PMC3657344
NLM abbreviation: J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol
ISSN: 1559-0631
eISSN: 1559-064X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Grant note: R01 ES014843/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States R01ES014843-01A2/ES/NIEHS NIH HHS/United States The research is supported by Grant DMS-0635449, DMS-0706731, DMS-0706731, DMS-0353029 from the National Science Foundation, US EPA Grant RD-83329201-4, US EPA STAR Research Assistance Agreement No. R833863, and Grant No. 1 R01 ES014843-01A2 from the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Lucas M Neas and Judy Schmid of the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory of the US Environmental Protection Agency for providing the mortality data. Janet M Burke and Haluk Ozkaynak of the National Exposure Research Laboratory of the US Environmental Protection Agency provided access to SHEDS-PM and guidance regarding its use.
Language: English
Date published: 09/01/2012
Description audience: Academic
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Biostatistics; Provost Office Administration
Record Identifier: 9983764492802771

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