Journal article
Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, Vol.379(2195), pp.20190542-20190542
04/19/2021
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0542
PMID: 33641464
Abstract
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes
- Creators
- Hayley Fowler - Newcastle UniversityHaider Ali - Newcastle UniversityRichard Allan - University of ReadingNikolina Ban - Universität InnsbruckRenaud Barbero - National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, FrancePeter Berg - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteStephen Blenkinsop - Newcastle UniversityNalan Senol Cabi - Towers WatsonSteven Chan - Newcastle UniversityMurray Dale - JBA Consulting, UKRobert Dunn - Met OfficeMarie Ekström - Cardiff UniversityJason Evans - University of New South WalesGiorgia Fosser - Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di PaviaBrian Golding - Met OfficeSelma Guerreiro - Newcastle UniversityGabriele Hegerl - University of EdinburghAbdullah Kahraman - Newcastle UniversityElizabeth Kendon - Met OfficeGeert Lenderink - Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteElizabeth Lewis - Newcastle UniversityXiaofeng Li - Newcastle UniversityPaul O'GormanHarriet Orr - Environment AgencyKaty Peat - Newcastle UniversityAndreas Prein - NSF National Center for Atmospheric ResearchDavid Pritchard - Newcastle UniversityChristoph SchÄr - ETH ZurichAshish Sharma - University of New South WalesPeter Stott - University of ExeterRoberto Villalobos-Herrera - School of Engineering [Newcastle]Gabriele Villarini - University of IowaConrad Wasko - The University of MelbourneMichael Wehner - Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratorySeth Westra - The University of AdelaideAnna Whitford - Newcastle University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, Vol.379(2195), pp.20190542-20190542
- DOI
- 10.1098/rsta.2019.0542
- PMID
- 33641464
- NLM abbreviation
- Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci
- ISSN
- 1364-503X
- eISSN
- 1471-2962
- Publisher
- Royal Society, The
- Grant note
- name: National Science Foundation, award: AGS-1552195; DOI: 10.13039/501100000780, name: European Commission, award: 690462; name: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, award: GA01101; DOI: 10.13039/501100000270, name: Natural Environment Research Council, award: NE/R01079X/1, NE/S017348/1; DOI: 10.13039/501100000288, name: Royal Society, award: WM140025; DOI: 10.13039/100011199, name: FP7 Ideas: European Research Council, award: ERC-2013-CoG-617329
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/19/2021
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984197241602771
Metrics
13 Record Views