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Using Machine Learning Applied to Real-World Healthcare Data for Predictive Analytics: An Applied Example in Bariatric Surgery
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Using Machine Learning Applied to Real-World Healthcare Data for Predictive Analytics: An Applied Example in Bariatric Surgery

Stephen S. Johnston, John M. Morton, Iftekhar Kalsekar, Eric M. Ammann, Chia-Wen Hsiao and Jenna Reps
Value in health, Vol.22(5), pp.580-586
05/2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2019.01.011
PMID: 31104738
url
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2019.01.011View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Laparoscopic metabolic surgery (MxS) can lead to remission of type 2 diabetes (T2D); however, treatment response to MxS can be heterogeneous. Here, we demonstrate an open-source predictive analytics platform that applies machine-learning techniques to a common data model; we develop and validate a predictive model of antihyperglycemic medication cessation (validated proxy for A1c control) in patients with treated T2D who underwent MxS. We selected patients meeting the following criteria in 2 large US healthcare claims databases (Truven Health MarketScan Commercial [CCAE]; Optum Clinformatics [Optum]): underwent MxS between January 1, 2007, to October 1, 2013 (first = index); aged ≥18 years; continuous enrollment 180 days pre-index (baseline) to 730 days postindex; baseline T2D diagnosis and treatment. The outcome was no antihyperglycemic medication treatment from 365 to 730 days after MxS. A regularized logistic regression model was trained using the following candidate predictor categories measured at baseline: demographics, conditions, medications, measurements, and procedures. A 75% to 25% split of the CCAE group was used for model training and testing; the Optum group was used for external validation. 13 050 (CCAE) and 3477 (Optum) patients met the study inclusion criteria. Antihyperglycemic medication cessation rates were 72.9% (CCAE) and 70.8% (Optum). The model possessed good internal discriminative accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.778 [95% CI = 0.761-0.795] in CCAE test set N = 3527) and transportability (external AUC = 0.759 [95% CI = 0.741-0.777] in Optum N = 3477). The application of machine learning techniques to real-world healthcare data can yield useful predictive models to assist patient selection. In future practice, establishment of prerequisite technological infrastructure will be needed to implement such models for real-world decision support.
 Machine Learning antihyperglycemic medication metabolic surgery prediction type 2 diabetes

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