Journal article
Validation of the youth mood recurrences risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder
Journal of affective disorders, Vol.295, pp.1482-1488
09/17/2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.037
Abstract
•Personalized risk of mood episode recurrence can be estimated with a risk calculator.•A risk calculator derived in a youth and young adult sample was externally validated.•The external validation in a distinctly different sample is encouraging.•The risk calculator performed similar to those used for cardiovascular disease.
The ability to predict an individual's risk of mood episode recurrence can facilitate personalized medicine in bipolar disorder (BD). We sought to externally validate, in an adult sample, a risk calculator of mood episode recurrence developed in youth/young adults with BD from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study.
Adult participants from the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; N=258; mean(SD) age=35.5(12.0) years; mean follow-up=24.9 years) were utilized as a sample to validate the youth COBY risk calculator for onset of depressive, manic, or any mood episodes.
In this older validation sample, the risk calculator predicted recurrence of any episode over 1, 2, 3, or 5-year follow-up intervals, with Area Under the Curves (AUCs) approximating 0.77. The AUC for prediction of depressive episodes was about 0.81 for each of the time windows, which was higher than for manic or hypomanic episodes (AUC=0.72). While the risk calculator was well-calibrated across the range of risk scores, it systematically underestimated risk in the CDS sample by about 20%. The length of current remission was a highly significant predictor of recurrence risk in the CDS sample.
Predominantly self-reported White samples may limit generalizability; the risk calculator does not assess more proximal risk (e.g., 1 month).
Risk of mood episode recurrence can be predicted with good accuracy in youth and adults with BD in remission. The risk calculators may help identify higher risk BD subgroups for treatment and research.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Validation of the youth mood recurrences risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder
- Creators
- Jess G Fiedorowicz - The Ottawa Hospital, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Department of Psychiatry, School of Public Health and Epidemiology, Brain and Mind Research Institute, University of Ottawa, 75 Laurier Ave. East, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, CanadaJohn A Merranko - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USASatish Iyengar - Department of Statistics, University of Pittsburgh, 230 S. Bouquet St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USAHeather Hower - Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Box G-BH, Providence, RI 02912, USAMary Kay Gill - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USAShirley Yen - Departments of Psychiatry, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USATina R Goldstein - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USAMichael Strober - Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USADanella Hafeman - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USAMartin B Keller - Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Box G-BH, Providence, RI 02912, USABenjamin I Goldstein - Department of Psychiatry, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine, 2075 Bayview Ave., FG-53, Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, CanadaRasim S Diler - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USAJeffrey I Hunt - Department of Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Box G-BH, Providence, RI 02912, USABoris B Birmaher - Department of Psychiatry, Western Psychiatric Hospital, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3811 O'Hara St., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of affective disorders, Vol.295, pp.1482-1488
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.037
- ISSN
- 0165-0327
- eISSN
- 1573-2517
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100000025, name: National Institute of Mental Health
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 09/17/2021
- Academic Unit
- Psychiatry; Epidemiology; Iowa Neuroscience Institute
- Record Identifier
- 9984172262102771
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