Journal article
Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9–16 September 2013?
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.40(24), pp.6405-6410
12/28/2013
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058282
Abstract
From 9–16 September 2013 significant portions of Colorado experienced extreme precipitation and flooding resulting in large socioeconomic damages and fatalities. Here we investigate the ability of eight global state‐of‐the‐art numerical weather prediction systems to forecast rainfall during the event. Forecasts were analyzed from initializations at 12 UTC 5 September to 12 UTC 12 September to determine when, and how well, the event was captured. Ensemble mean rainfall patterns initialized on 5 September (roughly 4+ day lead time) did not forecast the event's persistent nature; conversely, forecasts initialized on 9 September captured the rainfall patterns reasonably well, although with incorrect rainfall values. Accumulated rainfall forecasts improved when the region considered increased from a 0.5° area centered over Boulder to the entire state of Colorado. We conclude that the models provided guidance indicating a significant period of rainfall in Colorado from 9 September 2013, although not necessarily in the correct locations.
Key Points
Forecasts captured the rainfall patterns for 9–16 September 2013 Colorado flood
Accumulated rainfall return periods were on the order of a few hundred years
Rainfall forecasts improved with increasing spatial averaging
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9–16 September 2013?
- Creators
- David A Lavers - University of IowaGabriele Villarini - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.40(24), pp.6405-6410
- DOI
- 10.1002/2013GL058282
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- eISSN
- 1944-8007
- Number of pages
- 6
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 12/28/2013
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9983991966702771
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