Preprint
Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence
ArXiV.org
Cornell University
12/03/2024
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2412.02498
Abstract
Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical processes and atmospheric dynamics, resulting in significant uncertainty and high computational costs. Here, we develop an artificial intelligence-driven global aerosol-meteorology forecasting system (AI-GAMFS), which provides reliable 5-day, 3-hourly forecasts of aerosol optical components and surface concentrations at a 0.5° x 0.625° resolution. AI-GAMFS combines Vision Transformer and U-Net in a backbone network, robustly capturing the complex aerosol-meteorology interactions via global attention and spatiotemporal encoding. Trained on 42 years of advanced aerosol reanalysis data and initialized with GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) analyses, AI-GAMFS delivers operational 5-day forecasts in one minute. It outperforms the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasting system, GEOS-FP forecasts, and several regional dust forecasting systems in forecasting most aerosol variables including aerosol optical depth and dust components. Our results mark a significant step forward in leveraging AI to refine physics-based aerosol forecasting, facilitating more accurate global warnings for aerosol pollution events, such as dust storms and wildfires.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Advancing global aerosol forecasting with artificial intelligence
- Creators
- Ke GuiXutao ZhangHuizheng CheLei LiYu ZhengLinchang AnYucong MiaoHujia ZhaoOleg DubovikBrent HolbenJun WangPawan GuptaElena S LindCarlos ToledanoHong WangZhili WangYaqiang WangXiaomeng HuangKan DaiXiangao XiaXiaofeng XuXiaoye Zhang
- Resource Type
- Preprint
- Publication Details
- ArXiV.org
- DOI
- 10.48550/arxiv.2412.02498
- ISSN
- 2331-8422
- Publisher
- Cornell University; Ithaca, New York
- Language
- English
- Date posted
- 12/03/2024
- Academic Unit
- Electrical and Computer Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering; Physics and Astronomy; Chemical and Biochemical Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984757071602771
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