Report
Sensitivity analysis of the short-term forecasts of an integrated hydrometeorological forecast system
IIHR report, Vol.329
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, University of Iowa
03/1989
Abstract
An Integrated Hydrometeorological Forecast System (IHFS) that links quantitative precipitation prediction components with hydrologic runoff components and with real-time updating procedures was the subject of an extensive sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the IHFS stage forecasts with respect to: meteorological input (surface air temperature, pressure and dewpoint temperature) time series, mean areal precipitation input time series, and observed stage time series, was examined. Data from three hydrologic basins of different hydromorphological characteristics were used in the sensitivity analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that for flashy basins the meteorological input is very important for accurate predictions of flooding occurrence and magnitude. As the drainage basin response time becomes considerably greater than the forecast lead time, the sensitivity analysis showed that updating from rainfall and stage data is the dominant factor for accurate stage predictions. Updating from both rainfall -and stage was shown to be necessary for robust IHFS predictions in situations with erroneous input data.
IHFS was installed on the Rock Island U.S. Army Corps of Engineers District on a HARRIS 800 computer. Software was written to interface IHFS with the hydrometeorological database maintained on the HARRIS. The sensitivity analysis of IHFS for the West Otter Creek at Kanawha, Iowa, basin detailed in this report was performed on the HARRIS computer. The IIHR Report No. 322 documents a User’s Manual for IHFS. The IIHR Technical Note No. 6 presents the modifications made in IHFS that were necessary for its implementation onto the HARRIS 800 computer, and examples of interactive sessions.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Sensitivity analysis of the short-term forecasts of an integrated hydrometeorological forecast system
- Creators
- Konstantine P GeorgakakosC. ViswesvaranWitold F Krajewski
- Resource Type
- Report
- Publication Details
- IIHR report, Vol.329
- Publisher
- Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Iowa Institute of Hydraulic Research, University of Iowa; Iowa City, Iowa, USA
- ISSN
- 0578-6444
- Number of pages
- ix, 173 pages
- Grant note
- Sponsored by: The Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory. Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755-1290 (Contract No. DACA89-87-K-0004)
- Comment
- The work, reported herein was sponsored by the United States of America Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (USACRREL), Corps of Engineers, Department of the Army, at Hanover, New Hampshire, under the Contract No. DACA89-87-K-0004. The support work of the staff of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Rock Island District, and in particular of S.K. Nanda and Rich Engstrom in assisting with the implementation of IHFS on the HARRIS and in providing consultant’s services on the HARRIS operating system, is gratefully acknowledged. Also, acknowledged are the efforts of Harlan L. McKim, Timothy Pangburn, and Carolyn J. Merry of USACRREL in providing guidance, documentation and maps for the West Otter Creek at Kanawha, Iowa, drainage basin case study. Jim Cramer of IIHR proved invaluable in the implementation of IHFS on the HARRIS computer and in the development of the software interface for accessing the HARRIS real-time hydrometeorological database (IIHR Technical Note No. 6). Shuguang Li, a graduate student in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of The University of Iowa, assisted with the preparation of the plots presented in the three Appendices of this report.
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/1989
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984202145802771
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