Peace by Coercion?: How UN Sanctions Impact the Occurrence of Peace Negotiations in Civil Wars

Previous studies have employed the bargaining model of war to explain likelihood of negotiation in intrastate conflict. Building upon this framework, this article provides an analysis of the effect of targeted UN sanctions on the onset of negotiations between warring parties in civil wars. Using novel monthly negotiation data and UN targeted sanction data from thirteen African civil wars between 1989 and 2020, my analysis finds that when sanctions target governments, negotiation onset is more likely. These findings contribute to the limited research on the effect of targeted sanctions on intrastate conflict and have important implications for policy-makers using sanctions as a tool of conflict resolution.