Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden

Anders Sundell; Michael S Lewis-Beck

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2450229

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Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden

Working paper

Open access

Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden

Anders Sundell and Michael S Lewis-Beck

SSRN

06/15/2013

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2450229

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https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2450229View

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Abstract

We develop a simple structural forecasting model of government support in Swedish parliamentary elections, building on unemployment and inflation figures. The model predicts that the incumbent government will receive 49.7 percent of the vote in the September 2014 elections. In contrast, a simple model based on polling done in May predicts that the government will receive 43.4 percent of the vote. These rival approaches thus promise substantially different outcomes.

Elections

forecasting

electoral behavior

Details

Title: Subtitle: Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden
Creators: Anders Sundell
Michael S Lewis-Beck
Resource Type: Working paper
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2450229
Publisher: SSRN
Number of pages: 16 pages
Language: English
Date posted: 06/15/2013
Academic Unit: Political Science
Record Identifier: 9984025522902771

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