Working paper
Uncertain Firm Profits and (Indirectly) Priced Idiosyncratic Volatility
SSRN
03/09/2024
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4753212
Abstract
We show that the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) and expected returns exists only among firms with low profitability and high uncertainty about profitability. We propose an incomplete information model in which agents cannot disentangle systematic from idiosyncratic shocks. While not priced directly, IVOL affects expected returns by lowering signal accuracy, which decreases the factor loading on the priced systematic risk and yields the negative IVOL-return relation. The model predicts that this negative relation is the strongest among underperforming firms with highly uncertain profitability. When applied to U.S. equity data, we explain 86% of the negative IVOL-return relation
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Uncertain Firm Profits and (Indirectly) Priced Idiosyncratic Volatility
- Creators
- Bharat Raj ParajuliXuhui PanPetra Sinagl
- Resource Type
- Working paper
- DOI
- 10.2139/ssrn.4753212
- Publisher
- SSRN
- Number of pages
- 79 pages
- Language
- English
- Date posted
- 03/09/2024
- Academic Unit
- Finance
- Record Identifier
- 9984582459802771
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