Output list
Working paper
Forecasting the 2014 Parliamentary Election in Sweden
Posted to a preprint site 06/15/2013
We develop a simple structural forecasting model of government support in Swedish parliamentary elections, building on unemployment and inflation figures. The model predicts that the incumbent government will receive 49.7 percent of the vote in the September 2014 elections. In contrast, a simple model based on polling done in May predicts that the government will receive 43.4 percent of the vote. These rival approaches thus promise substantially different outcomes.